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Possible reasons for rate increases and decreases

Possible reasons for rate increases:

· A recovering equities market that will take cash from bonds and plant it in stocks.

· Real corporate earnings growth based on revenue increases as opposed to cost cutting.

· Increased government deficit spending that will cause the government to issue more debt such as financing the war effort or reduced tax revenues. (Wouldn’t it be nice to have an open-ended credit card you can pay whenever you want and also get online payday loan with instant approval?)

·Improved economic data

·Shifting to junk bonds as the economy improves

·Better yields on the euro dollar based on weakness in US dollar and yields

·Corporate debt issuance taking money away from Treasuries (short term effect)

·Peace in the Middle East (don't hold your breath)

·Any signs of inflation

·Increase in the risk spread added to the treasury yield to determine loan rates

·The Bin Laden family turns on the Bush family, develops a conscience, forms Terrorists anonymous and dedicates their lives to peaceful causes thereby nearly ending all terrorist activities in the world.

· Arnie turns the CA economy upside down and into a deep recession, but can’t be terminated from office for two years, unless he’s totally recalled by the same voters that elected him.

· Michael Moore is elected president, socializes the health, drug and oil industries, becomes a “jaba the hut” type dictator and is expelled with Aristide to a remote island after ruining the country’s economic system.

Possible reasons for rate decreases:

· Any economic, political or natural crisis anywhere in the world

· Continuing bad economic data, primarily a lack of consumer confidence and thus spending

· A declining equities market. Online payday loan application included.

· A narrowing in the premium spread between Treasury bonds and the mortgage rate (I still have no idea how this works mechanically, but it's generally based on risk, inflation and other market factors)

· More CEO bad boys and girls caught violating SEC rules.

· Bush resigns after recognizing he doesn't have the brain cells to run this country and that he has been nothing more than a puppet for the good old boys and Saudi royalty and wants to get in touch with his own identity. He goes on tour to rave reviews for MAD magazine as an Alfred E. Newman double. (Probably no impact on rates, but not a bad option in my opinion)

·In a live version of Predator III, Arnie meets the predator in the form of the CA legislature, CTA, unions, environmentalists, bureaucrats, etc. and terminates them. A new amendment to the constitution is passed by the States, allowing foreign born immigrants that were successful body builders and “B” rated actors to run for president and he handily wins the 2008 presidential election while filming the next Terminator sequel.

· Deflation

Payday Advance Online. Rate Report

Equities were up big time on Friday and that trend continues today at the expense of Bond** yields that continue to climb higher on the expectations of better than expected jobs data to be released (that’s right, on the expectation of an expectation) and a better outlook for payday advance online and stronger first quarter earnings. I received three upward rate adjustments on Friday, and expect at least one today based on the market’s performance thus far. Key releases of economic data will begin Wednesday, so watch for those numbers, particularly the new jobs data, to impact the market. It will be interesting to see how the market factors in the Grocery union strike ending and those people going back on the payrolls. As one would expect, Mortgage rates/costs* are climbing right alongside the bond yields, but they remain very low historically and about 3/8% off their all time 50 year lows reached on June 10, 2003. The benchmark 10 year Treasury** yield is about 3.90%% as of this posting, up from a nine month low of about 3.68% reached a few weeks ago, but down from the 4.5% range it reached last September when rates climbed up to 1.5% after dropping to 3.00% on June 10, 2003.
So with the Feds doing nothing since last July 2003, you can see what really drives mortgage rates and that’s the equities and bond markets. Since the beginning of the year, equities have pretty much coughed up all their early January gains but if this was just a healthy correction, it may be headed for another leg up. If this trend continues, it may result in increasing rates but that may be short lived given this fragile economy can’t afford high rates until the consumer bounces back with a stable job situation and cash (or credit) to burn at the big box. Check out the payday advance online lists I have prepared to see the events that can impact mortgage rates and costs. I also have what are now some dated, but still relevant charts that show rate trends. It's also interesting to see who the bond traders really are and what drives them in their decision-making. The most significant part of your mortgage financing decision should be the loan type you choose which depends on how long you intend to own the home and your risk tolerance. But your lock strategy is really key because you can always switch the loan type during the process, but deciding on when to lock is key, and once you lock, you got to rock. My view is that if you can improve on what you have with out adding much to your loan balance, why wait, it could get worse. If it gets better, read my policy. I’ll relock the loan and pass any benefit to you. Hopefully the list below, this website, the links and all the other research you've done will help you to work with your mortgage broker (hopefully me) to make the right decision. 

*I refer to changes in terms of "rates/costs" because on any given day there will be a cost or rebate that the lender will attach to the loan, depending on the rate.
**Generally, when Bonds are up, their yield is down. While not always an accurate benchmark, mortgage rates/costs will generally follow the treasury yield. When Treasuries are down, the opposite is the case. This is only a rule of thumb measurement and there are times when this won’t be the case, but that’s usually the exception, not the norm. Check out the charts to see how the mortgage rate tracks the treasury bond as compared to the federal funds rate.***I use a lot of boxing terms because I was an amateur boxer, love the dance, and Muhammed Ali was the best. Whereas I welcome business from anyone as long as they are civil and respectful, I answer to no corporate bosses thus reserve the right to add whatever political opinion I deem relevant to this report on fast payday loans online
. Bottom line, I think GWB is not competent and fear he will jeopardize the fiscal health of this nation while he slowly strips us of our civil rights and restricts our freedom. And for the record, I was the Santa Barbara Coordinator for the McCain for President campaign.